Now that the Mubarak regime has wound down, the question on a lot of lips is about the role of the Egyptian Army in the crisis, and how their action (or inaction) helped in toppling Uncle Hosni. People have asked what the Nigerian Army would do given the same situation.
There are many people who swear that the Nigerian Army would have no problems in shooting the protesters. I beg to differ, and my confidence is borne out of what I saw in the eyes of the armed men who stood in the way of the Enough is Enough protest of March 16, 2010. These people hesitated. I can guarantee that if Nigerian officers were as bloodthirsty as people try to make out on a lot of occasions, Audu Maikori would definitely be pushing up daisies by now.
Then there is the scenario that is playing out in Algeria as I type. The government has already ordered a heavy-handed crackdown on the protests that are beginning to play out, and the police are doing their bidding.
The question then becomes, "what is the difference between Egypt and Tunisia on the one hand", and Algeria, then possibly Nigeria on the other?
The difference is timing, and eventually, critical mass. It took the government of Ben Ali seven days, from December 17 when Mohammed Bouazizi immolated himself to begin a crackdown. By that time, the protests had attained critical mass. In Egypt, it took Mubarak's government six days from January 25 before the military was mobilized. Again, as in Tunisia, the protests had attained critical mass.
By critical mass, we are talking of the number of people who had gotten involved so as to make military intervention meaningless. You see, what we have to realise is that the soldiers come from amongst us. When there are a few protesters, the possibility that the soldiers would hurt their own people is limited. When the number of protesters has reached a certain mass (half a million and above), the possibility goes up exponentially that if soldiers are deployed to quell such a protest, they will end up hurting their mothers, their fathers, their sisters or their brothers. Faced with such a scenario, the average soldier will not shoot.
The challenge for Nigeria now is how to attain that critical mass that would render our own revolution, when it happens, effective. Let us make no mistakes, the Nigerian revolution has to happen. It has to happen soon. However, it is not about crying for democracy, we already have that no matter how flawed. It should be about putting our differences which our political elite have played on for so long behind us and forging a genuinely Nigerian identity.
There is one more challenge. How do we attain critical mass in 48 hours or less. Make no mistakes about this, as the government of Algeria is showing, no other government is going to allow a popular revolt attain critical mass before deploying its armed forces to quell it. That for us, is the biggest lesson from Egypt.
6 comments:
Nigeria is too united in corruption for a revolution to happen. Its cuts across all the ethnic groups and in every state and local government...down to wards there are stakeholders who survive soley on corruption.
Just for the records Danexd, Egyptian corruption makes Nigeria's pale in comparison.
Or you haven't heard how much Mubarak is worth?
Even in the dirtiest cesspool, there comes a tipping point, and trust me, given the current situation in Nigeria (food prices rising, rising unemployment), that tipping point is coming.
You are right about the critical mass. I want to point out that the ability to also control and maintain order by the protesters will also play a major role. You remember the police were pretty surprised at how organised our rally was.
On whether the Role of the Army/Police. I watched the encountered with Audu at close range and quite agree with you that it will take a less than a week of sustained rally to have them join us. They only need to see reason with us.
In all i think its possible but will it happen soon? I have my doubts.
good piece
I see it this way
http://my.opera.com/dapxin/blog/2011/02/12/nigeria-in-anticipation-preparation-of-nigerias-revolution
Just picking up on Algeria.
2011 is the year to live!
Great piece. I think the tipping point will come for Nigeria when the 45 and above generation join together with the 'youth', and I don't just mean a Soyinka and Bakare here and there...
I don't really see any credible person who can make a difference, and I am sure a lot of people think the same way, hence we all put up with the status quo.
For me, more critical than Mubaraks ouster will be what changes are and can be effected in the next months and years in Egypt. That will be the ultimate litmus test for this popular revolution.
Marin
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